Which Country Is Closest To Building Their First Nuclear Weapon?

Many countries have advanced or developed nuclear power programs to supply energy to their citizens. Most of them however, do not have nuclear weapons. This thanks to a majority of countries signing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NNPT). The treaty states that those with nuclear weapons programs get to keep their nuclear weapons and will focus on disarmament, while those without nuclear weapons will not attempt to develop or acquire them.

Science and technology has advanced quite a bit in the last 40 years since the treaty was signed. Many countries, if they so wished, could develop nuclear weapons without much, if any, help from outside. We wanted to know, hypothetically of course, which countries could develop nuclear weapons the quickest.

Developmental History

Without nuclear power plants or any technological precursors many counties now have the luxury of, it took just 4 years for the Soviet Union to build their first nuclear weapon – the second country to go nuclear. France was able to achieve nuclear capability in 2 years. India was able to do it in 7 years. With technologies like laser isotope separation and information more widely available than ever, it seems that the average for many countries would hover around 5 years from decision, to an actual viable nuclear bomb.

Who Would Reach The Finish Line First?

Right now, the nations with the most potential are Japan and Germany. Both countries are extremely active in nuclear science and engineering. Their expertise in nuclear non-proliferation issues is not much different from the expertise you need to create bombs. Both could develop nuclear weapons in an extremely short time frame if they so desired.

While Germany has the cash on hand, an educated workforce, access to some of the best technology in the world and has access to fissile material thanks to the decommissioning of their reactors, Japan stands in a league of its own. Japan has an active breeder reactor development program and has tens of tons of reactor grade plutonium (enough for 10,000 nuclear warheads).

Thanks to Japan living in a region where tensions are high (China’s rapid growth and constant threats from North Korea), Japan has a much greater incentive to maintain a latent nuclear weapons program.

According to U.S government nuclear proliferation assessments, no non-nuclear country is as well positioned to “break-out” and develop advanced nuclear weapons than Japan. It is believed that Japan could go from a decision to viable nuclear weapons in as little as a few months.

In addition to building a bomb, countries wishing to pursue a nuclear weapons program would also have to maintain the weapons they create. This is an extremely costly and complex process which requires specific infrastructure. Countries like the UK lease the rights and technology to do so from the US. This factor alone drastically lowers the chances of countries ‘going rogue’ and secretly developing nuclear weapons.

References:
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)
“Disarmament and Non-Nuclear Stability in Tomorrow’s World,” Conference on Disarmament and Nonproliferation Issues, Nagasaki, Japan 2007 (PDF)
Hans M. Kristensen, National Resources Defence Council, 2005, U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe: A Review of Post-Cold War Policy, Force Levels, and War Planning (PDF)
Summary of the 2010 NPT final outcome document, Beatrice Fihn, Reaching Critical Will, June 1, 2010